UFC 227 Picks

Hot on the heels of the news that FOX Sports will be ending their broadcasting relationship with the UFC, it transpires in the UK, BT Sport will no longer be showing events from the end of 2018. Going forward, the rights will be in the hands of Eleven Sports, as yet a streaming only network. Some suckups, I'm sorry, journalists, assure us that they will have a channel on cable by the time they begin their deal though it's decidedly unclear as to what providers will carry it, if it will be part of a basic package or premium, and so on.

No one will miss BT Sport's coverage which did not bother synchronising their ad breaks with the host broadcastyet somehow would still manage to muffle out any remotely potentially awkward language. All events were blacked out from UFC Fight Pass, even cards ostensibly exclusive to Fight Pass. Their coverage of other sports is also spotty, frequently distorting their schedule, shunting events behind unrecordable digital walls. Nearly all of their studio shows not directly connected to pre or post match have been cancelled. On Wednesday during the Mladenovic vs Babos tennis match at the Silicon Valley Open, their HD channel had a major sound issue for over two hours they did not bother fixing or even addressing. What I'm saying is, no one is shocked by this parting of ways.

But this is not some triumph of common sense by the UFC. It's just another money saving tactic on the part of the owners. Of course it transpires Eleven Sports is part owned by IMG. They are working towards building their own global empire of which the UFC is just a tiny piece. They are cutting costs all over the place whether it's something large like allowing the likes of Lyoto Machida to walk or ending the UFC Pick'Em game on their website. One thing observant viewers may have noticed is the number of events held in small towns with tiny venues, like Boise, Utica and Liverpool.So much for world domination.

A couple of big fights were announced at the press conference on Friday with obviously the major attraction being Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Conor McGregor in October in Las Vegas. But as yet there is no main event on the horizon for UFC 230, the annual New York show. The only potential one looming that feels significant enough would be Cormier vs Jones III. Most main PPV cards including UFC 227 are mostly composed of filler that would struggle to feel relevant on a Fight Night card. Many Fight Night cards now are regional promotion quality.

When they do have something good brewing such as Paulo Costa, they show no patience, catapulting him from a series of heavily flawed opponents into a bout with Yoel Romero. He is not ready for that, doesn't have enough mainstream heat behind him and will get destroyed. As I said, it feels like the company is being run not as the NFL of combat sports but as a minor cog in a giant machine. There's little to get excited about right now and it feels like the higher ups barely care. Well if they don't care, I don't care. If they put together something worth talking about then we'll talk. If not...

Picks after the jump.

UFC 226 Picks + Bonus World Cup ramble

I've been watching the World Cup 2018 Russia with someone who knows literally nothing about football. I do mean literally, as in she was unsure how long matches. She has of course though heard peripherally of a couple of players - you know the two I mean. The rest of the world knows them as stars.

While watching Portugal vs Iran a tall, well-built gentleman stepped up to take a penalty and while waiting for the whistle to be blown, began fussing with his hair. "Why's he doing that," she asked while mimicking the hand motions. "His hair is already so short!" "Well that's Cristiano Ronaldo," i replied. After the match, checking social she remarked on how all of the chatter was about Ronaldo, or C-Ro as he is apparently known in some quarters even though he had done relatively little in the game. That's just how it is, I said.

The next night Argentina played Nigeria and rescued their tournament, at least temporarily, with a late stunner to win the match from Manchester United backup Marcos Rojo. After the match checking social again, I was asked, "Why is everyone talking about Messi? I thought the other guy scored the goal?" Well precisely. He's "the other guy". Messi is the star and that's just how it is.

With both players eliminated last Saturday - If everyone goes out, who will get in, as one netizen remarked - the attention online turned to Neymar - for more legitimate reasons with his influence and antics during Brazil's victory over Mexico. Already the #3 player in the world, he is the future of the sport. Why does it seem so obvious when there are other formidable goalscorers and creators out there though?

As talented as he, Messi and Ronaldo are, to climb above and stand out for their performance on the field of play there is a tremendous amount of propping up by the media that comes with it to elevate to that next level of stardom. I'm not for it. The constant fellating of LeBron James has driven me away from my usual sports talk radio havens over the summer. Conor McGregor receives the same level of myth making as did the newest UFC Hall of Fame inductee Ronda Rousey for a little while.

Where does the UFC find it's next star? The league is dying on its feet. It's not enough to have a big mouth and try and talk trash. The gimmick being run by the interim welterweight champion has failed. I really think for the aura to form around you can't be so obviously fake. Guys like Kamaru Usman and Max Holloway also strike me as being try-hard, too put on. Yet at the same time you need a little self delusion, to really believe that even with the transient nature of the sport that you are so far removed from the rest of your competition. The final element is that media help. The media has to ride your jock and bully people into thinking you're just that great. I think with that in mind the next man up is Darren Till, but that could all change very quickly.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 225 Picks

I was cautiously optimistic about the ESPN+ deal signed by the UFC last time out but a month later the hope has evaporated. ESPN has doubled down on their determination to drive true sports fans away from their platform, bringing back demagogue Keith Olbermann yet again and launching a new flagship afternoon show hosted by Pablo Torre and faux intellectual Bomani Jones.

With many cards scheduled to be across the ESPN network exclusively expect the 'talent' such as it is to be spread thin especially as the UFC is expected to retain a PPV model and save all their best fights for those. But the base will be driven away by the core principles that appear to be in play at ESPN. Meanwhile the type of people the likes of Olbermann, Jones and Michelle Beadle are designed to appeal to are cutting the cord and being judicious over what services to subscribe to. So who will be left to watch? It is a terrible brand fit and a mistake the UFC may never truly recover from.

Dana White obviously thinks it is the greatest thing that has ever happened for the UFC. What else can he say? But then again he also said Yair Rodriguez had been released - a lie as predicted here. From what I hear the plan was to spread rights between multiple networks and FOX Sports were ready to pay nine figures for half of the rights. But when Endeavor chose ESPN as one its partners, a direct and main rival to FOX Sports, they withdrew their offer forcing the UFC to go hat in hand to ESPN. I am sure Fox are not upset they don't have to deal with Dana anymore.

White also came out this week and said the UFC would do away with early weigh-ins which have been blamed for the rash of fighters missing weight. I think there's certainly truth in that - but it's not because early weigh-ins are necessarily a bad thing. It's because most fighters are semi-professional and don't take the proper approach to their cuts. I was rewatching some of UFC 216 recently. Prior to that Dana White issued a message of condolence after the Las Vegas mass shooting and I thought about how there was really no one else who could represent the UFC and speak on it's behalf. He is really the only face of the company and at least sometimes that becomes a real disservice.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 224 Picks & assorted sports musings

There are some stories out there this week I'm curious to take a look at - but mostly just a look for now because they involve an element of wait and see. We'll wait and see if the rumors of Manchester United's Anthony Martial being traded to Dortmund in exchange for the |American forward Christian Pulisic are true. Pulisic is a gifted talent with a high ceiling. If he reaches his potential his nationality will grant him an easy path towards becoming a global superstar. He is already under a lot of pressure with the hopes of an embattled soccer federation on his shoulders and seems to handle it well. He was a United fan as a young boy and would be an ideal fit for the club in all facets. As good and beloved as Martial is, it's clear he is not in Jose Mourinho's plans or heart so I would do this deal. We'll see.

Meanwhile Petra Kvitova is one match away from back to back titles for the second time this year. Her opponent in the Madrid final is Kiki Bertens, very much a confidence player. She is very comfortable on clay and has been slowly building on her form year after year but when Petra, a momentum player, is on a roll she is incredibly difficult to stop and has an excellent record in finals. I would make her a slight favorite against Bertens who has been known to choke against mentally stronger players.

Yair Rodriguez has apparently been cut by the UFC due to inactivity after refusing a fight with Zabit Magomedsharipov. According to Dana White he had also previously turned down a fight with Ricardo Lamas. It's quite a dramatic fall from grace for Rodriguez. At the start of last year he was fed BJ Penn to put him over and then jumped the line to face Frankie Edgar which would have cemented him as a star in a key demographic.

We thought he would lose that fight but the way in which he got battered was eye opening. It's possible the beating he took broke his spirit a little. If he truly was dodging his obligations as a healthy, ranked fighter to perform then I can understand the move but the problem is not everyone who holds out waiting for the ideal opponent is held to the same standard. It's not just the Conor McGregors and Nate Diazs of the world picking their spots, we frequently hear stories and he said/she said of this fighter refused that fight and so on. Jimmie Rivera springs to mind in that regard. So whether this is a new UFC policy moving forward or just Dana being capricious once again we will have to wait and see. So far it is also not completely official so I'm also not certain that Dana's anger won't subside and he will reconsider dumping a very exciting guy to watch over a logistical squabble.

A $150m deal was announced for fifteen live UFC events to be streamed on
ESPN+, ESPN's new over the top service. I said before that ESPN and the UFC were not a brand fit and it would be a bad move but since then the President of the company got fired/resigned and there be an understanding developing at the executive level that they need to rein in some of their more obnoxious personalities.

What they definitely are is desperate for content to make yet another paid subscription service in the world viable. From the UFC perspective, it is unclear whether the Endeavor people know anything about sports whatsoever so they probably just looked at the documents and said "ESPN? They do sports, right?" and signed off. Dana for his part seems to perpetually think it's ten years in the past and it has always been his wet dream to be officially associated with ESPN so I am not surprised.

There is still no word on where the rest of the live shows will be broadcast meanwhile. The rumor previously was that rights would be split between ESPN and their existing home at FOX who I think the UFC has good synergy with. It may take some time for that situation to be figured out though as FOX is in flux with the Murdochs breaking up and selling off parts of that empire and FOX Sports also working on acquiring WWE rights.

I saw something grumbling about how hiding content behind an ESPN paywall would not help the sport grow. I actually think this kind of initiative, spreading out rights across multiple platforms is not a bad strategy in such a fragmented media environment. What this is though is a middle finger to existing die hard fans who will be expected to pay for every service and also have their fight pass subscription rendered effectively pointless. We'll have to wait and see where the rest of the rights migrate to assess and pass judgement on the UFC's broadcast future.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 223 Picks

The relatively light scheduling, only one event in the last five weeks, has come in handy allowing the UFC to stack their April Pay Per View so even though the loss of Tony Ferguson is devastating, it's not disastrous. More scarce scheduling also leaves fighters free to step in on late notice although there are some who notably did not jump sat the chance. It also proved however that it is not vital. No one missed it while it was gone and any equity they built in the summer years of Ronda and Conor has well and truly been squandered. Regular service is set to be resumed with packed weekends ahead so here are some thoughts on some upcoming fights before we look at the card coming on Saturday...

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje: It should go without saying this is going to be fun and a well fitting main event for big FOX. Things do not get easier for Gaethje. It perhaps would have been better for 'building' him to match him with someone else coming off a loss. I think Poirier is peaking and ready to challenge the top of the division.

Alexa Grasso vs Tatiana Suarez: Whoever thought this booking was a good idea would be fired in my UFC. Easy win for Suarez.

Stephen Thompson vs Darren Till: This is not quite as big a mismatch but the principle is similar. I don't think Till as a striker is anywhere close to the level of an undefeated karate champion. Till is talked about as a knockout artist but has only finished two of five fights in the UFC. It's much easier to knock guys out at regional level. Thompson seemed to tire towards the end of his fight with Jorge Masvidal but if Till as he enjoys claiming is a Light Heavyweight fighting at Welterweight he too will wear down and the adjoining dehydration will be an impediment to his hopes of staying conscious. Too much too soon?

Jimmie Rivera vs Marlon Moraes: In an ideal world, Moraes would take out the most boring fighter on the UFC roster but 5 rounds I have a suspicion "Magic" will come out emotional and suffer a severe adrenaline dump allowing Rivera to poke and leg kick his way to a decision win. If the UFC does a show in Mexico, Houston or New Jersey late in the year, look for him to get a title shot on that card.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 222 Picks

Apart from glancing at it on the televisions at the gym, I watched not a minute of the recently passed Winter Olympics of my own volition. I did however visit some relatives over Chinese New Year who had recorded some of it for us to watch in the afternoon with a particular emphasis on figure skating.

For them figure skating is not just an Olympic diversion, it's a sport they follow all year round, all around the world. They eagerly anticipated the performance of the apparent superstar Yuzuru Hanyu and his stablemate, the Spaniard Javier Fernández. Rounding out the podium was Shoma Uno or was he was dubbed, Fei Jai - Fat Kid (allegedly). Ageing Canadian Patrick Chan was described as a beautiful skater but incapable of jumping.

Then there was the supposed dark cloud of the event. China is hosting the Winter Olympics in 2022 and are thus pumping untold millions into developing competitors who will ne capable of winning medals. Like many things that emerge from regimes historically culturally crushed by communism, the results are somewhat mechanical. Exhibit A: Jin Boyang. As my uncle explained to me, "This boy, he can really jump. But his art is shit. We don't want people like that in our sport."

I of course couldn't really tell one way or another apart from noticing he seemed to rush through a lot of his performance. It got me thinking about how this sentiment could relate to a sport I know much better - MMA. Who are the kind of fighters we don't need in our sport? Flyin' Brian of MMA Mania asked this week what is more important to you when watching MMA, high level technique or entertaining storyline/personality? I would lean towards the former but for me really it'd be option three: Willingness to trade.

What are the fights and who are the fighters who live longest in the memory? Robbie Lawler's war with Rory McDonald. Shogun-Henderson. Anything involving Justin Gaethje. Those are the types of fights as a fan you take along to your uninitiated friend and say, "Here, watch this!" knowing it will get them as hyped up as you. They don't need a storyline, the action sells itself. In fights like these technique goes out the window because the combatants are punch-drunk, exhausted and desperate. That's a beautiful thing. That's not to say true fight IQ and patience are not also beautiful things but it's not quite the same rush of blood to the head.

Kamaru Usman has been chatting up a storm on social media trying to call out Cosby Corbynton, a fight that makes sense from a matchmaking perspective. They're both outstanding wrestlers capable of winning any fight they're booked in. Neither is a guy I care to watch. I want to watch fighters WIN a FIGHT. Not hold someone on the ground for fifteen minutes. Nor do we want staring contests or point fighters who have no way of finishing opponents. What's particularly maddening about someone like Usman is he is clearly capable of great things but too often plays it safe.

Sometimes you will get screeching shills like Ariel Helwani chastising fans for booing Tyron Woodley in his last two fights. But if a fight is boring, it's boring. Enabling such inactive gameplans, "fighting smart" as they call it, contributes to the slow death of cage fighting. I don't want that for my sport.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 221 Picks

With Max Holloway out of his title fight against Frankie Edgar at UFC 222 due to an injury, the Las Vegas based promotion has reshuffled its deck and come up with a new main event that's the surest sign yet that it's high time the UFC drastically scale back their PPV business if not spike it entirely. We'll wait for it to roll around and see if the scheduled fights actually happen before commenting too much on that front.

With FOX spending big for Thursday night NFL rights, the bargaining position for UFC broadcast rights continues to weaken. There's no chance whatsoever they'll be able to extract the $400m per year they were reportedly hoping for but a step in the right direction would be guaranteeing more title fights for the broadcast network. Frankly I'm not even sure Cyborg vs Kunitskaya would be a legitimate FS1 main event. But at least people would know who they were and maybe start caring a little if they could watch them without having to pay for them.

Meanwhile I'm ready to announce the first main event for the Oceanic Fighting Championship (formerly Openweight Fighting Championship but retaining the same initials). Before Stipe Miocic broke the consecutive Heavyweight title defence record last month, Daniel Cormier had talked about going up in weight to defend Cain  Velasquez's honor in that regard. Now he and Miocic are fighting for real in the summer. So in the meantime how about Cain goes and defends DC's honor? Battling at Openweight I present to you Jon Jones vs Cain Velasquez. Since we're in international waters, both can do whatever steroids they need to in order to make it to the fight. Who says no to that?

Picks after the jump.

UFC 220 Picks

With Uriah Hall's illness and subsequent withdrawal from Fight Night St Louis, there are sure to be the usual rash of stories decrying the evils of weight cutting and calling for hundreds of new weight classes to be added to official competition. We won't get into why that's dumb (and it is very dumb), instead I have a better idea.

With Robert Whittaker's injury and inability to defend his title at UFC 221, Yoel Romero jumps in to replace him and OF COURSE fight for an interim belt coming off a loss. Rockhold-Romero is still a fun fight and could go five rounds with no hardware but why not. The UFC is telling us they don't give a shit about belts, they're just a meaningless prop so who cares? Forget about belts, forget rankings because they're also irrelevant in UFC matchmaking.

And now, with all the weight cut issues, why do we need weight classes? Back in the good old (?) days there was no such thing anyway. Do two guys look roughly comparable in size? Good enough. Apparently a Saudi fund wants to invest in WME. Get one of the sheikhs to loan you a yacht, sail into international waters and unveil the Openweight Fighting Championships, baby. No tax either so you can pay your constantly complaining fighters a little more and keep them happy. Now we can finally make fights the fans want to see. I've solved your problems, UFC.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 219 picks

The ratings are in for UFC on FOX 26, a card which looked better for dedicated fans (like me) than it did for casual sports fans, and they are pretty awful. In contrast to the FOX card at the same time next year, the UFC lost more than 30% of their audience, almost a million viewers. There are some lame excuses out there as to why, such as it being a Saturday for shopping before Christmas but it's not a one off - all FOX events, in fact all events period this year have been trending down.

The numbers for their next FOX show will not improve. Brunson vs Jacare is a good fight but to headline a big show? No. There's no momentum behind it - a guy whose last two fights were gimmes against decrepit old men versus another guy coming off a loss. If Brunson wins, does he go on to a title shot? Probably not if Whittaker wins at UFC 221. Souza definitely won't. Good luck selling that.

Rafael Dos Anjos, the winner of the recent main event should get the next title shot - his fighting style is pressure-based and action packed, an antidote to recent Welterweight title fight woes. A dominant win over the former champion and his own status as a former champion in another weight class give him the credentials. Instead most of the talk is about some twerp who got slapped around by a boomerang. The champion himself is in limbo, how quickly will Tyron Woodley be able to recover from his recent surgery? The lack of interest makes some sense.

It's not all bad news - the recent Fight Night card did a respectable number on FS1 and was headlined by Sub Swanson vs Brian Ortega - a fight I called for after Ortega submitted Renato Moicano at UFC 214. It's time to push some of the young handsome fighters and most importantly, dynamic finishers, ie not boring ass wrestlers who get out struck by jiu-jitsu fighters. For the women, where the finishers can be harder to find, it may upset the hardcore fans but make sure the ones you're pushing at the top of the card are, shall we say, presentable. There's a reason Octagon girls are so popular! Most key of all, make sure the main and co-main events mean something real - for the winner, a clear goal must be in sight. If I remember, I'll outline some more specific matchups I hope to see going forward. Here's to a much improved 2018!

Picks after the jump

UFC 218 Picks

Someone, very puzzled, asked why it looked like UFC 218 was having trouble selling tickets when on paper it was a pretty good card. To me, it's not so complicated. The UFC has barely promoted the event at all. Instead we've gotten to hear all about Dana White is so excited to get into promoting boxing, right on the heels of him lashing out at Colin Cowherd for suggesting his fire for MMA was waning. I can't come up with a single MMA fan much interested in having boxing associated with the UFC but he has always deep down been a frustrated wannabe boxing promoter, in the same way that Conor McGregor turned to MMA after failing at amateur boxing.

Some people will say that the ridiculous antics of a guy like Colby Covington are therefore justified because you need to make a name for yourself. Heck no. The job of the promotion is literally to promote you. There are ways in which you can help yourself, for sure. I'll probably talk more about that before UFC 219. But the primary job of the fighter is to show up and fight. With the Ali Act Expansion hearings ongoing the UFC could find itself in a spot where their only job really will be to promote their cards if they actually want to make any money. Wasn't the point of WME coming in as the new owners that they would have the muscle in the industry to really market their product? It's almost as though they have no idea what the fuck they are doing.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 217 Picks & the Health of the Company

UFC 217 is finally here with very limited fanfare to follow it. It has been terribly promoted by everyone involved, even the fighters. It's almost as though WME has no fucking idea what they're doing with this company. There's something I've had in my mind for a while now, an idea that has started to pick up steam lately as the reality of the situation begins to dawn on people: the over-promotion of Conor McGregor has severely damaged the brand of the UFC and reputation of the sport of a whole.

Michael Bisping was on the Herd last week to promote UFC 217 and of course our friend Colin Cowherd wanted to talk about McGregor to which Bisping replied in an exasperated tone, "Conor, Conor, Conor!" It's my feeling too and I apologize in advance for what's about to transpire but this is important.

Before anyone ever knew who Conor and Ronda Rousey were, the PPV King of MMA was UFC 217's headliner Georges St-Pierre. He wasn't a dynamic personality, he wasn't a trash talker spewing myriad lines of bullshit. He wasn't even particularly exciting to watch all of the time. He was just a highly talented and intelligent fighter whose excellence created an aura and star quality organically.

As long as the product remains first and foremost about competition, you will always have a steady stream of that sort of attraction. It's treated as a real sport and the fact someone has developed into an elite fighter is the most important factor; everything else is just an added bonus.

It ain't that anymore. Some people want to tie Ronda Rousey's over-promotion to the decline of the UFC. I don't think that was it. More often than not, she was booked as a supporting act for Chris Weidman. The last two PPV's she headlined as the champion the notoriety she built as a female novelty allowed the UFC to enter new markets. The current problems in the Women's Bantamweight division stem from a lack of depth and a lack of fights being booked.

As an aside I think the UFC should definitely fold up the Women's Featherweight division and consider doing away with Bantamweight. Most, if not all of the more popular Bantamweights could make 125lbs anyway. The two big stars who made those divisions seem like relevant women's divisions in Gina Carano and Ronda Rousey are gone now. Honestly, I even think they were the only reason people were ever interested in Cyborg, whose record I find unappreciatedly padded.

The beginning of the end really started when Conor McGregor was granted an immediate rematch with Nate Diaz at UFC 200. People look back on that (UFC 202 as it eventually became) and think landmark event, they think Fight of the Year. I think of it as a circus freak show that severely damaged the integrity of the matchmaking.

The failure to book a title defense for McGregor despite a catalogue of eligible challengers left the Featherweight division in limbo. Scrambling to create Interim title bouts when the Champion was fit and healthy and ready to defend rendered all Interim belt meaningless. Gifting McGregor an undeserved Lightweight title shot on a one fight win streak so he could make fake history compromised the integrity of the competition and the significance of winning a championship.

Allowing McGregor to box Floyd Mayweather Jr marked the apex of the short term gain they experienced. It made one man definitively bigger than the sport. While Dana White's question "What makes one a star" is well taken, there is a way to handle them. Promoting him at the expense of everyone else involved with the company changed the expectations of the consumers.

Three of the last three PPV cards have turned in atrocious numbers. UFC 213, 215 and 216 between them failed to cracked 400,000 buys. The casual fan catered to by McGregor does not care if it's not a superfight. If the participants don't act like lunatics at the press conference, it's not worth talking about for them. Great fighters who don't talk trash are disregarded as unmarketable. What's the point of putting them in big fights?

I don't expect this card to do as well as the UFC is hoping. It didn't help that Dana White has spent years lambasting GSP's state of mind. As it stands, we are on the lookout for McGregor vs Ferguson to headline the year end show at UFC 219 which will help them end 2017 on a high. 2018 will be a very important year for the future of the UFC. The next TV deal they sign will be very telling. My feeling is that FOX aligns well with their brand, or at least what they ought to be aiming for. they should not under any circumstances sign with the dying yet still somehow reputable ESPN. We'll see where they go from here.

Picks after the jump.

Yamanose Sports Ledger 10/29/17 - Yuli Gurriel, Bob McNair & Some Guy I've Never Heard Of

I had some sports musings that I was going to include in my UFC 217 picks column but it got really long really fast just by itself so I decided to forego them. However, within a matter of days three very similar stories with varying degrees of severity popped up and I felt like throwing in my opinion for whatever it's worth. So I decided to create an entirely new feature, the Yamanose Sports Ledger, a general sports column. I'll probably never do a second edition of YSL but it's here if I need it!

When people are offended now, it can be difficult to judge whether or not the outrage is justified. Clay Travis often says that social media is a funhouse mirror that distorts reality. "Sides" such as they are become polarized and people becoming entirely incapable of debating issues rationally; Everything is either classified as a world ending indignation or the wailing of whimpering snowflakes with no in-between.

Of course, the truth is that everything should be judged on a case-by-case basis and all of reality exists on a scale - a concept those who are especially gender-conscious ought to already be intimately familiar with but often actually aren't. I feel like I'm a very reasonable, moderate person so I'm happy to serve as the arbiter and rank three offensive acts in order of least to most concerning.

Analysis after the jump

UFC 216 Picks & Ramble

The writer Dan McLaughlin has a good mantra for dealing with social media - every time before you log on, tell yourself "They can both be wrong". My enjoyment of the NFL was definitely dampened in week three by the mass protest or rather, as it was spun "display of unity". I can certainly understand where their anger came from.

As LeSean McCoy put so succinctly, the President is an asshole. But let's beclear,the protest and all connected protests are stupid. No one even knows what they're about and everyone involved is doing a piss poor job of explaining it. The condescending and judgmental attitudes of those who support the displays of petulance and #resistance is utterly repellent. I don't even want to talk about ti anymore.

As the culture war rages, those weary or at least myself seek to retreat and find a leisurely respite from entirely fabricated controversies and other weighty issues presented without context or balance. All too often popular media is used as a vehicle to push some kind of agenda. Worthy or not I won't be the judge here. Sports appears to be the next battleground. Seized upon by people who appear to not even much like sports perhaps in resentment of those who do, overwhelmingly traditional and conservative in outlook. If that's off the table, where can we find peace?

Used to spend every Sunday of 🏈 season glued to the couch. Stopped after Kap. Today I went to 💒, strolled w fam & read. Much more enriching!

— ☩ Faith J Goldy 🇨🇦 (@FaithGoldy) September 18, 2017

One of the things that has always struck me about MMA is how many of the fighters make sure to thank God after they've won. We saw last week in the NFL, although many players are also deeply religious, they can find grace in their teammates. A strong leader oe voice in the locker room can convince you of all sorts of powerful things. What of the solo athlete? What of the fighter?

Achieving greatness as an athlete requires an enormous amount of will and self-determination. To enter an arena and compete and shut out everyone else around bar yourself and your opponent requires courage in spirit and of your convictions. Sports where you have a chance of being severely injured or worse such as combat sports and race car driving. To succeed there you need faith - in yourself and perhaps also in a higher power, one that guides you, sets a path for you to climb and protects you from harm.

A lot of people like to make snarky comments about the statements they make thanking Jesus Christ and so on. But why? I've never been particularly religious but I'm starting to understand the meaning prayer holds for people. It's an act of giving in mind and spirit and in an environment where increasingly people are encouraged to take , to cast themselves as victims, it holds reassurance. If you can find peace in it, I'm happy for you.

UFC 215 Picks & Quick NFL Predictions

UFC 215 lost a lot of its appeal with the loss of the main event due to an illness supposedly not related to weight cutting. Kevin Lee came out yesterday, and it's a sentiment shared by many others, that the UFC needs to add weight classes to eliminate weight cutting. I am here to tell you that is absolute nonsense. If you add weight classes there would be more weight cutting, not less. You'd have some 190lb half-wit who fights at 170lbs because who wasn't quite able to make it to 155lbs who would then attempt to make 165lbs. Furthermore no one forces you to cut weight. The challenger in the new main event tonight in fact cuts no weight and she's able to have success. So what's your excuse, Kevin?

The NFL regular season kicks off tonight. I haven't followed off-season news as closely as years past so I'm less blithely confident in these predictions as usual but why not try? My main takeaway is that even though the Patriots lost their home opener, a very rare occurrence for a defending champ, they're a team that tends to get stronger as the season goes along and by the end they will be peaking and the most likely champions once again.

I think the Cowboys are due some karmic regression. Funny how everyone has flip-flopped their opinion on alleged domestic violence given the opportunity to rag on Roger Goodell. Mike Lombardi has long been one of the biggest blowhards in NFL media, not an uncommon approach for a former 'football person' but most of them are mercifully not taken very seriously whereas Lombardi is given a platform on the Ringer for his biased, near-sighted drivel where he does a podcast with an awestruck intern. He is on some sort of crusade lately against Doug Pederson of the Eagles, saying he's not qualified to be a head coach, as opposed to say for example Josh McDaniels. He is frequently made to look very silly and I think the Eagles are due and will soar again.

The rest of the Playoffs I envision being composed of the usual suspects though. The Packers meet the Seahawks on Sunday opening week and I believe they'll rematch for the conference title as the two most dominant teams in the NFC. I also like the S̶a̶n̶ ̶D̶i̶e̶g̶o̶ Los Angeles Chargers but that's probably mostly because they have an Asian kicker now. We'll see how long that lasts.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 214 Picks and Herd/MayGregor rant

Liberal sports writers and opinion makers exploded in outrage after the Mayweather-McGregor press tour, decrying Conor McGregor's racially insensitive taunts with some branding him an outright racist and all bemoaning the existence of The Joint Business Venture™ to begin with. It becomes very difficult to tell when accusations of racism are for real with the frequency with which they are leveled nowadays. I don't know what is in Conor McGregor's heart or mind and I doubt any of these pundits do either. I will say this though - McGregor's pathetic excuse that he can't be racist because he loves black culture and listens to hip-hop all the time sounds an awful lot like the outlooks of many, many virtue signaing left-wing white milennial writers, for example almost everyone who works for the Ringer. Those people are all more prejudiced than they understand so who knows?

Of course the most glaring insult is that the people who willed this into existence are the very sports media hacks now decrying it. With 24 hours of content to fill, they all latch on to loudmouths like Conor hailing him as the greatest fighter ever to walk the Earth, mostly because he tells them he is so they don't have to do the resarch and watch the actual fights themselves. they elevated him and made his wishes reality and now that he has offended their sensibilities they're determined to debase and discredit him.

Nowhere is this more evident than with Colin Cowherd. I listen to Colin all the time and enjoy his NFL and college football takes but the guy should just stay away from opining on MMA as he reveals his own ignorance. He mocks MMA fans saying they refuse to see reason and think Conor not only has a chance but will win. No bud, the people saying that are Conor stans. People who are truly invested in MMA think the whole affair is a farce - I've not talked about it all without first being asked about it and have not actively sought out anything about it beyond what appears organically in my feeds. He should be defending his belt(s). Never forget - 4 belts, 0 defenses. Everything he does is in self-interest which is great for him but erodes the credibility of the organization that promotes him and pretty much only him.

Colin has no perspective on MMA and does not do his research. He claims that Conor is the best fighter in the UFC. No, he is the most famous. Jon Jones and Demetrious Johnson are both head and shoulders above him in those sorts of accolades. Tony Ferguson is a nightmare matchup for him which is probably why he'd rather fight Khabib upon his return. Cowherd says Conor has lost three times in the UFC. He's lost once - the three are in his career overall. The nuance is important MMA records are toptally different from the type of boxing records to which he was equating with. He says Conor does not KO most of his opponents. In the UFC he has KO/TKO'd 7 of 10 opponents, in his career overall 18 of 24 a rate of 70% and 75% respectively. That sure sounds like most to me. If you cannot get basic facts right why should anyone listen to your presuppositions?

Colin also contends that Dana White is the face of the UFC and we should all bow down and be eternally thankful for that. Bro do you not realize that the non-competing promoter being the bulbous, red face of his fighting organization is a BAD thing? It means he is not doing his goddamn job which is literally to "promote" them. Wacky idea, I know. Finally, he equates Mayweather vs McGregor as Duke vs Coastal Carolina in NCAA Basketball, a #16 vs #1. My analogy would be it's more like Nike & Adidas vs Lavar Ball, another guy you grossly overexposed and with that in mind I'll repeat his catchphrase back to you: "Stay in your lane".

Picks after the jump.

UFC 213 Picks

After holding three events for "International Fight Week", whatever the hell that is, last year the UFC cut back to two this time out. They have been really struggling for main events as evidenced by complete randos like Kevin Lee and S̶e̶r̶g̶i̶o̶ Santiago Ponzinibbio getting the call. Maybe it would help if they didn't wait hand and foot on their biggest stars, allowing one to jaunt off and flounce about in a circus act on August 26th. The other they made a fight despite knowing he would  not be able to go until the fall. Perhaps if they didn't do stuff like that and then bold faced lie about it all, other champions and big names would not get so testy and difficult to deal with and then entire divisions would not be held up. But this game has always been sleazy so it's nothing new.

Some thoughts on other upcoming fights; Travis Browne vs Oleksiy Oliynyk is the exact type of fight I'd book in World of Mixed Martial Arts 3 when trying to get one guy and easy win and burn fights off the other's contract. Shameless. I don't think Oliynyk will be able to get a takedown so Browne's deteriorating skills should hold up.

The fights on the TUF Finale prelims are better than most of the main card. Who the hell is Drakkar Klose? The one to keep an eye out for is Jessica Eye vs Aspen Ladd. Ladd is an undefeated all-rounder with good potential. Women's Bantamweight is struggling for storylines and as of later this year could be struggling for numbers so her rise could be fast. In the main event, I think Michael Johnson is a very bad matchup for newcomer and WSOF star Justin Gaethje. Gaethje has talked about getting a KO finish but I think against Johnson that's easier said than done and his intensity will be matched every step of the way.

Cynthia Calvillo's rise has already been fast and nine days later she takes on Joanne Calderwood in Scotland. The outcome depends on how much Calderoowd's takedown defense has improved. My guess is "not enough". One more win after this and you can expect to see her in a title fight. UFC matchmakers have been very kind to friend of Conor. In the main event, expect Gunnar Nelson to lay waste to Some Guy Who Should Only Be Headlining Prelims and also be a fight away from gold.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 212 Picks preceded by unrelated comment on Man Utd

I was just generally a bit angry when I wrote my last post and considering the events of last week Monday and the subsequent joy and wild celebrations following the Europa League final victory, I'm prepared not to call Manchester United's 2016-17 season a failure. That's not to say it was a success. We all made fun of Liverpool, quite rightly too back when the won the Mickey Mouse Treble in whatever ancient, irrelevant year that happened so it's a little silly for us to parade our three trophies around now. At the same time, we have three trophies and they have zero and we're back in the Champions League to boot so who can complain about that? I'm content to wait and see what happens next season from here.

UFC 212 meanwhile is not the most superb, star-studded card we've ever seen. Expecting people to pay $60 for what amounts to, main event aside, a Fight Night card seems optimistic to me but there are some interesting, potentially very fun fights on deck...

Picks after the jump.

UFC 211 Picks and some thoughts on Man Utd

We are geared up for the best card of the year with UFC 211 stuffed full of meaningful fights. It has been three weeks since the last UFC event and absence has made the heart grow fonder at least here. The news has been a little slow but I do have two random things on my mind.

First of all, I've become irrationally convinced that Jose Mourinho is low key trying to ruin my life. That has nothing to do with MMA or Shenmue or anything but our Manchester United side has been absolutely dire by their standards in not just recent weeks but in fact recent years!

I heard people talking the other day, asking the question "If United don't win the Europa League, would this season be considered a failure?" Forget that, I say, even if they do win the Europa League the season is already a failure. Manchester City and Arsenal have grossly underachieved, Liverpool have been a barely above average side and somehow all those teams are ahead of us in the league.

To make matters worse Tottenham, who will for sure embarass us in the last ever game at old White Hart Lane, have stolen a march on us at a time where we would have otherwise hoped to pry away key players from their squad like Harry Kane and Eric Dier to augment our own. Failure to take the initiative in our own games has allowed our competitors to strengthen their position against us.

The game on Thursday against Celta Vigo, a razor thin 1-1 draw on the night was so typical of the inefficacy of the team this year. After stumbling out of the blocks and allowing Vigo to dictate play early in the match, United finally settled in and started to knock the ball around with confidence leading to our goal, a header from Marouane Fellaini. But after that, United sank further and further back showing less and less ambition.

Vigo's equalizer instigated full-scale panic because barely a soul in the side has a spine. Athletic lugnut Eric Bailly unwisely shoved his hands in some diving prick's face and got himself sent off. When play resumed, Rooney promptly ran the ball up to the corner flag in an attempt to waste time. Against Celta motherfucking Vigo. Are you fucking kidding me?

I'm not inspired by Mourinho. I'm still irrationally convinced he will win us the league out of nowhere next year but I don't think he'll last much longer beyond that. In the meantime, he will have driven away all our promising youngsters and homegrowns, in particular the beleagured Luke Shaw and no doubt leave us right back where he started from. He truly is a desciple of van Gaal in that respect. To Stockholm we trudge then.

In lighter news, Paige VanZant apparently caused quite the stir when she posted a suggestive video of herself showing off her Reebok undiepanties imploring her followers to buy a set for their sisters or girlfriends. In full disclosure, when I saw the video free of any context (not that there was much to begin with) I believe I exclaimed out loud, "She's gone completely batshit insane!" but as a born contrarion once the criticism started pouring in I started to feel a paternal or perhaps hot-girl-privilege inspired need to defend her. Not that I did that but I would note that yes she is a hot girl and yes that does mean she gets a pass. That's just how it is. I know Angela Hill is a critic but shehas made some odd videos herself in the past but they're not nearly as effective because she is not hot leading me to believe the hate is borne from either jealousy or angry, frustrated virgins. That's how I see it anyway.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 210 Picks and an NFL non story

For those who did not watch last Saturday, Paddy Pimblett was dethroned at Cage Warriors 82 by Nad Narimani. I scored it 49-46 for the challenger Narimani with only the second round for Pimblett. He was thoroughly dominated in all aspects of the fight yet this morning, local journalists like Jim Edwards are still trying to defend him, talking about how he will one day be the face of MMA in the UK.

For my part, I'll admit that Pimblett is very young and has room and time to improve. But if he wants to reach the lofty goals that he himself has boasted off, a UFC roster spot and a potential future showdown with Conor McGregor, he has a very long way to go. The unwavering belief that some pundits still have him in despite his last two performances is an example of how intractable some people can be once they've adopted public positions. As Colin Cowherd often speaks about, for them it's about being right rather getting it right.

This is particularly noticeable when discussing about Colin Kaepernick's continued unemployment in the NFL. He has never proven himself to be an adept starter outside of one season's worth of games when people did not yet have tape on him. He can't read defenses, has never been able to and when called on it, blustered and revealed his ignorance. According to Dan Graziano, his salary demands are high, in the $9-10m a year range and he wants a shot at being the starter. Yet somehow according to the blue Twitter checkmark brigade this is one of the great injustices currently facing us in the world.

"A source" claims that the salary demand is fake news. However, I would note that Kaepernick switched agents heading into free agency, leaving XAM Sports where he had followed a friend of his and signing with Select Sports Group. His previous contract with the 49ers had been noted as unusually team friendly, ie "I ain't gettin' paid enough" territory. His supporters claim that he is being blackballed because of his political stances.

I would not say "blackballed" but do I think that puts off GM's? Sure - but why shouldn't it? While he has the right to kneel for the national anthem, it does distract from team unity - we've mentioned before how many athletes and coaches are inherently conservative. It does put the spotlight and focus on self rather than team goals and a winning mentality. For me it's magnified by my lack of conviction in his sincerity - something borne out by his sudden and convenient abandonment of said kneeling policy.

I had a brief back and forth with Mina Kimes of ESPN on this topic and brought up Bill Romanowski's claim that Blaine Gabbert outworked Kaepernick in terms of film study prior to being named the starter which she rejected out of hand due to his supposed unreliability. Michael Crabtree had suggested something similar in regard to his willingness and ability to study tape but on-field or in the case of Paddy Pimblett, in-cage evidence is not enough when you have predetermined agendas to promote.

It's really nothing new when it comes to sports 'journalism'. The difference now is that the average fan has so much more access now that we should know better. Use your own eyes and mind when making your judgments. The truth will reveal itself to you as long as you are open to it. I guess that's what I'm trying to say.

Picks after the jump.

UFC 209 Picks

I was thinking about ruminating on why MMA fans seem to be overwhelmingly conservative in nature but then big fight news came down this week as Georges St. Pierre's return became official as he challenges Michael Bisping for the Middleweight title at UFC 2??. Well, most likely UFC 213 during International Fight Week in July. Plenty of people are complaining but I don't hate it and am looking forward to the fight.

The chief grievance most people have is that this feels like a gimmick, money fight rather than one based in actual sporting intrigue given that GSP has not fought in three and a half years and has never competed at Middleweight. They have a point there but the inference that WME is interfering in matchmaking to pay off the vig and that this would never have happened under the reign of the Fertittas is risible. Anyone remember when Chael Sonnen got an undeserved shot at Jon Jones? Brock Lesnar had the name but not the credentials when he fought Randy Couture. Multiple fighters have been handed title shots coming off losses. While technically under the WME banner, there was also a rather large event at Madison Square Garden where a a very popular fighter got a shot at a belt with a grand total of zero wins in that division in the UFC that no one complained about that you just know old Zuffa would've been all about. So it's not unprecedented.

Moreover, I don't feel bad for Yoel Romero. Is he the clear number one contender? Sure, I guess. But he's also extremely lucky not to be in the midst of a two year USADA suspension. There was highly unethical conduct by his corner in the Tim Kennedy fight and also repeated fence grabbing against Jacare Souza which saved him from being underneath a BJJ warlock. So it's tough for me to muster a lot of sympathy. While there is also grumbling about a logjam being created at Middleweight - a logjam of two, by the way - it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Better than what you have at Women's Bantamweight which has no clear challengers after Valentina Shevchenko. There's a real complaint you could hurl the UFC's way which was also evident under the old management - would it kill them to book a few more women's fights?

Picks after the jump.