Sunday, 16 October 2011

NFL Picks Week Six sponsored by Studio Yukupo

I was going to talk about the Hotplate league this week but am blowing it out because of, as Brandon Lloyd put it, "the Tebow thing". By now everyone knows that Tebow came in last week and played like a Boss, falling an uncalled pass interference penalty short of leading a sensational comeback against the Chargers.

Yet still there are doubters. Still there are people who can do nothing but hate. There are people out there who proudly proclaim that Denver should trade Tebow now because he'll never amount to anything, but are at the same time "THIS IS THE WEEK DONOVAN MCNABB TURNS IT AROUND!" I've mainly attributed it to jealousy in the past; Mediocre players who never achieved the same level of adoration who in turn lead around pundits all too eager to continue kicking up to their inside lead.

ESPN, in their usual pompous manner invented a new system for rating Quarterbacks in the off-season, their reasoning being that the existing technique was too flawed. They named it QBR and one of the guys who helped develop it was Trent Dilfer, a guy everyone out there knows is one of the most biased 'experts' in the business, giving preference to players he has coached or has other personal relationships with and going out of his way to trash guys like Jay Cutler who have a feud with one of his friends. Guess who, in the limited amount amount of playtime he has had is beating one of Dilfer's favorite pets Aaron Rodgers in the QBR ratings? What a conundrum for them - admit Tebow might turn out ok, or admit their system is just as useless as almost every other statistic out there?

In the end, it looks like the numbers guys are going to take QBR back to the garage and tweak it so it favors certain guys even more. Hopefully, people will understand that it's ultimately meaningless; the best way to judge the performance of a player is with your own eyes, and so far that's a battle Tebow is winning.

Picks after the jump.

Home Team listed in CAPS
(*) = Line Differential

Panthers (+4) at FALCONS
Colts (+7) at BENGALS
49ers (+4.5) at LIONS
Rams (+15) at PACKERS
Bills (+3) at GIANTS
Jaguars (+12) at STEELERS
Eagles (-1.5) at REDSKINS
Texans (+8) at RAVENS
Browns (+7) at RAIDERS
Saints (-4.5) at BUCCANEERS
Cowboys (+7) at PATRIOTS
Vikings (+3) at BEARS
Dolphins (+7) at JETS

Chris picks: Panthers, Colts, 49ers, Packers, Bills, Pokémons, Eagles, Ravens, Browns, Saints, Patriots, Bears, Dolphins

I pick: Panthers, Colts, 49ers, Packers, Giants, Steelers, Redskins, Ravens, Browns, Saints, Cowboys, Vikings, Dolphins

Lots of picks this week where I will be picking one team but rooting the other way. That's how it'll be with the first six games on the slate - You have to keep riding Newton until he flounders. 7 is too large for the Bengals - if Matt Turk hadn't shanked the punt last week, they probably would have lost. Going east doesn't faze the 49ers and they will have had a day extra to prepare for a Lions team that appears to be riding its luck at times. The Packers blow bad teams out and it's difficult to envision the Jaguars scoring on the road in Pittsburgh. Picking the Giants worked well last week, they lost on cue so I'll take them again here hoping for a similar result.

I can't believe the Eagles are still being favored. They should be renamed the Beagles - Michael Vick is killing them. They have to prove they can actually hold a lead before I'll take them, especially on the road. The Texans are a team that doesn't prove it, that never proves it. No way I can ever trust taking them. Gambling experts think Al Davis's funeral will be a distraction to the Raiders. 7 seems high the way it did for the Bengals - the Browns aren't good, but they are scrappy. I probably would have picked the Buccs in this game if they had showed any backbone whatsoever last week - as it is, a bitter taste has been left in the mouth.

The Cowboys are a team I'm not confident taking but the smart money backs them - with two weeks to prepare for a really weak defense, they should be able to at least keep pace. The Vikings seem like a real bad matchup for the Bears and we could see something similar to last week where they get up early and don't have to rely on McNabb to keep them in it. The Monday Night game is a gut call - it would just be typical Jets luck if they came out and performed on a national stage to trick people into thinking they're good again.

Last Week:
Chris: 7-5-1
Me: 9-3-1

Chris: 41-33-1
Me: 41-33-1

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